סמינר מחלקתי - דן ימין

  Rotavirus, the primary cause of gastroenteritis in children, poses a significant health and economic burden. A highly effective three-dose pentavalent vaccine course is widely used as part of infant immunization schedule worldwide, and has been licensed in Japan since 2011. As rotavirus is contagious, each vaccinated individual diminishes transmission within the population. Therefore, providing complete protection to all individuals might not be essential to contain the disease. To evaluate the number of vaccine doses sufficient to curtail transmission in Japan, we developed an age-structured mathematical model of rotavirus transmission. We conducted a survey study with 3,126 participants to quantify the contact mixing patterns of the Japanese population, and fitted model parameters to rotavirus vaccine clinical trial data as well as nine years of rotavirus incidence in Japan. Counterintuitively, model simulations under alternate dosing strategies suggested that, compared to no vaccination, a single-dose-regimen could be counterproductive in the first three years following implementation. In contrast, the first two doses were found to be responsible for 97% of the reduction in severe rotavirus infection, while the third accounted for only the remaining 3%. Thus, despite manufacturer and the World Health Organization recommendations, as a consequence of indirect protection, the necessity of the third dose should be revisited in Japan. 

ההרצאה תתקיים ביום שלישי 15.3.16, בשעה 14:00 , בחדר 206, בניין וולפסון, הפקולטה להנדסה, אוניברסיטת תל-אביב.